Effects of distance flown on pilot decision making in continued flight into deteriorating weather conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Continuing flight into adverse weather remains a significant problem in general aviation (GA) safety. A variety of experiential, cognitive, and motivational factors have been suggested as explanations. Previous research has shown that adverse weather accidents occur further into planned flights than other types of accident, suggesting that previous investment of time and effort might be a contributing factor. The aim of this study was to experimentally determine the effect of prior commitment on general aviation pilots' decision-making and risk-taking in simulated VFR flights. METHOD: Thirty-six licensed pilots 'flew' two simulated flights designed to simulate an encounter with deteriorating coastal weather and a developing extensive cloud base underneath the aircraft as it crossed a mountain range. After making a decision to continue or discontinue the flight, pilots completed a range of risk perception, risk taking, and situational awareness measures. RESULTS: Visual flight rules were violated in 42% of the flights. Prior commitment, in terms of distance already flown, led to an increased tendency to continue the flight into adverse weather in the coastal 'scud running' scenario. Continuing pilots perceived the risks differently and showed greater risk tolerance than others. These 'bolder' pilots also tended to be more active and better qualified than the others. CONCLUSIONS: There are undoubtedly multiple factors underlying any individual decision to continue or discontinue a flight. The willingness to tolerate a higher level of risk seems to be one such factor. This willingness can increase with time invested in the flight and also seems to be related to individual flight qualifications and experience. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: All pilots might benefit from carefully structured simulator sessions designed to safely teach practical risk management strategies with clear and immediate feedback.

The Untapped Potential of Narrative as a Tool in Aviation Mental Health and Certification.

INTRODUCTION: Work-related stress is common in pilots, with broad implications, including the potential development of mental health symptoms and sometimes even psychiatric disease. This commentary argues for the use of narrative as a tool to promote preventive health behaviors in pilots and combat misinformation about aeromedical certification related to mental health.Hoffman WR, McNeil M, Tvaryanas A. The untapped potential of narrative as a tool in aviation mental health and certification. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2024; 95(3):165-166.

Analysis on coupling dynamic effect of human errors in aviation safety.

Human factors have increasingly been the leading cause of aircraft accidents. In most cases, human factors are not working alone, instead they are coupled with complex environment, mechanical factors, physiological and psychological factors of pilots, and organizational management, all of which form a complex aviation safety system. It is vital to investigate the coupling impact of human errors to avoid the occurrence of aviation accidents. In view that the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) provides a hierarchical classification principle of human errors in aviation accidents, and the System Dynamics (SD) approach is helpful to describe the risk evolution process, this paper establishes a hybrid HFACS-SD model by employing the HFACS and the SD approach to reveal the aviation human factors risk evolution mechanism, in which the HFACS is first used to capture the causal factors of human errors risk, and a coupling SD model is then built to describe the evolution of aviation human factors risk supported by historical data. The eigenvalue elasticity analysis is taken to identify critical loops and parameters that have a substantial impact on the system structural behavior, and the influence of parameters and loops is assessed. Simulation results show that the evolution trend of the accident rate can be replicated by the proposed HFACS-SD model, and the structural dominance analysis can efficiently identify critical loops and parameters. Simulation results further show that, with the recommended safety enhancement measures, the stability of the aviation system is increased, and thus lowering the overall accident rate.

Pilot performance and workload whilst using an angle of attack system.

Loss of control in flight is the primary category of fatal accidents within all sectors of aviation and failure to maintain adequate airspeed - leading to a stall - is often cited as a causal factor. Stalls occur when the critical angle of the aircraft is exceeded for a given airspeed. Using airspeed as an indicator of the potential to stall is an unreliable proxy. Systems that measure the angle of attack have been routinely used by military aircraft for over 50 years however rigorous academic research with respect to their effectiveness has been limited. Using a fixed-base flight simulator fitted with a simulated, commercially available angle of attack system, 20 pilots performed normal and emergency procedures during the circuit/pattern in a light aircraft. Experimental results have shown that pilot performance was improved when angle of attack was displayed in the cockpit for normal and emergency procedures during the approach phase of flight in the pattern/circuit. In relation to pilot workload, results indicated that during the approach phase of flight, there was a moderate but tolerable increase in pilot workload. The use of such a display may assist pilots to maintain the aircraft within the optimum range and hence reduce occurrences of unstable approaches. Overall, fewer stall events were observed when angle of attack was displayed and appropriate pilot decisions made during emergencies. These results provide a new perspective on pilot workload and aviation safety.

Development of effective human factors interventions for aviation safety management.

Introduction: In the aviation industry, safety management has moved away from capturing frontline failures toward the management of systemic conditions through organizational safety management systems (SMS). However, subjective differences can influence the classification of active failures and their associated systemic precursors. With levels of professional experience known to influence safety attitudes, the present research examines whether experience levels among airline pilots had an impact on the classification of causal factors using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). Differences in the paths of association between categories were evaluated in an open-system context. Method: Pilots working in a large, international airline were categorized into high (≥10,000 total flight hours) and low (<10,000 h) experience groups and asked to classify aircraft accident causal factors using the HFACS framework. One-way ANOVA tests were carried out to determine experience effects on the utilization of the HFACS categories, and chi-squared analyses were used to assess the strength of association between different categories within the framework. Results: Results from 144 valid responses revealed differences in the attribution of human factors conditions. The high experience group was more inclined to attribute deficiencies to high-level precursors and found fewer paths of associations between different categories. In contrast, the low experience group presented a greater number of associations and was comparatively more affected by stress and uncertainty conditions. Discussion: The results confirm that the classification of safety factors can be influenced by professional experience, with hierarchical power distance impacting the attribution of failures to higher-level organizational faults. Different paths of association between the two groups also suggest that safety interventions can be targeted through different entry points. Where multiple latent conditions are associated, the selection of safety interventions should be made with consideration of the concerns, influences, and actions across the entire system. Higher-level anthropological interventions can change the interactive interfaces affecting concerns, influences, and actions across all levels, whereas frontline-level functional interventions are more efficient for failures linked to many precursor categories.

Prediction of severity of aviation landing accidents using support vector machine models.

The purpose of this study was to apply support vector machine (SVM) models to predict the severity of aircraft damage and the severity of personal injury during an aircraft approach and landing accident and to evaluate and rank the importance of 14 accident factors across 39 sub-categorical factors. Three new factors were introduced using the theory of inattentional blindness: The presence of visual area surface penetrations for a runway, the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) visual area surface penetration policy timeframe, and the type of runway approach lighting. The study comprised 1,297 aircraft approach and landing accidents at airports within the United States with at least one instrument approach procedure. Support vector machine models were developed in using the linear, polynomial, radial basis function (RBF), and sigmoid kernels for the severity of aircraft damage and additional SVM models were developed for the severity of personal injury. The SVM models using the RBF kernel produced the best machine learning models with a 96% accuracy for predicting the severity of aircraft damage (0.94 precision, 0.95 recall, and 0.95 F1-score) and a 98% accuracy for predicting the severity of personal injury (0.99 precision, 0.98 recall, and 0.99 F1-score). The top predictors across both models were the pilot's total flight hours, time of the accident, pilot's age, crosswind component, landing runway number, single-engine land certificate, and any obstacle penetration. This study demonstrates the benefit of SVM modeling using the RBF kernel for accident prediction and for datasets with categorical factors.

Cause analysis of unsafe acts of pilots in general aviation accidents in China with a focus on management and organizational factors.

Objectives. General aviation (GA) safety has become a key issue worldwide and pilot errors have grown to be the primary cause of GA accidents. However, fewer empirical studies have examined the contribution of management and organizational factors for these unsafe acts. Flawed decisions at the organizational level have played key roles in the performance of pilots. This study provides an in-depth understanding of the management and organizational factors involved in GA accident reports. Methods. A total of 109 GA accidents in China between 1996 and 2021 were analysed. Among these reports, pilot-related accidents were analysed using the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) framework. Results. The significant effects of managerial and organizational factors and the failure pathways on GA accidents have been identified. Furthermore, unlike traditional HFACS-based analyses, the statistically significant relationships between failures at the organizational level and the sub-standard acts of the pilots in GA accidents were revealed. Conclusions. Such findings support that the GA accident prevention strategy that attempts to reduce the number of unsafe acts of pilots should be directed to the crucial causal categories at HFACS organizational levels: resource management, organizational process, failure to correct a known problem, inadequate supervision and supervisory violations.

Cognitive Style and Flight Experience Influence on Confirmation Bias in Lost Procedures.

BACKGROUND: Accident analysis and empirical research have shown that the decision-making process of pilots after becoming lost is adversely affected by confirmation bias; this constitutes a serious threat to aviation safety. However, the underlying mechanism of confirmation bias in the context of lost procedures are still unclear.METHODS: This study used scenario-based map-reading tasks to conduct two experiments to explore the mechanism of confirmation bias in the lost procedures. In Experiment 1, 34 undergraduate students and 28 flying cadets were enrolled in a formal experiment to examine the effects of verbal-imagery cognitive style, experience level, and their interaction on confirmation bias. In Experiment 2, we further explored the influence of strategy as a core component of experience on confirmation bias with 26 flying cadets.RESULTS: The study found that individuals were subject to confirmation bias in lost procedures. Visualizers (M = 0.78, SD = 0.75) were almost twice as likely to select the disconfirmatory features than verbalizers (M = 0.37, SD = 0.49). Visualizers exhibited a lower degree of confirmation bias than verbalizers, and experience helps verbalizers to reduce their degree of confirmation bias. The protective effect of experience mainly lies in individuals' choice of strategy.DISCUSSION: Future aviation safety campaigns could be aimed at adopting a candidate selection process that focuses more on psychological attributes by testing for cognitive style, and enriching individual experience through adequate training. Such measures would reduce confirmation bias.Xu Q, Wang M, Wang H, Liu B, You X, Ji M. Cognitive style and flight experience influence on confirmation bias in lost procedures. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2022; 93(8):618-626.

A Systematic Review of Multilevel Influenced Risk-Taking in Helicopter and Small Airplane Normal Operations.

The violation of aviation rules, particularly meteorological flight rules, can have fatal outcomes. Violation can sometimes be explained by intentional risk-taking, alternatively it can be the manifestation of a strategy to enhance performance and influence outcomes, such as saving time or fulfilling customer expectations. The aim of this study was to determine the types of risk-taking behavior within extant empirical research and identify multilevel antecedents related to risk-taking in the context of aviation operations, via a systematic literature review. 4,742 records were identified, which after screening resulted in the detailed consideration of 10 studies, three qualitative and seven quantitative studies, which met the eligibility criteria. Only published works were included in the review, thus the results may have been subject to publication bias, however, the types of risk taking within the research were consistent with that observed in Australian and New Zealand accident reports. The predominate risk-taking behavior was that of continuing Visual Flight Rules (VFR) flight into deteriorating conditions / Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). Multilevel influences could be categorized under two overarching themes, being "continuation influence" and "acceptance of risk / normalization of deviance." One or both themes was consistently observed across the finding in all studies, although precaution should be given to the relative frequency of the reported associations. This review indicates the value of considering the social and organizational influences on risk-taking, and suggests avenues for future research, in particular exploring the influences through a Self-Determination Theory (SDT) lens.

A 5-Year Analysis of Aviation Medical Examinations in South Korea.

INTRODUCTION: Little has been studied to promote aviation health in South Korea. The aim of this study was to analyze the results of aviation medical examinations conducted in South Korea over the past 5 yr and, in doing so, provide evidence for establishing a health promotion, disease prevention plan.METHODS: Subjects of the study consisted of applicants who underwent aviation medical examinations from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020.RESULTS: Over the past 5 yr, the total number of aviation medical examinations in South Korea has shown an annual increase of more than 10%. In the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the number of aviation medical examinations, both renewal and initial, for all types of licenses, except renewal aviation medical examinations for the ATCL, decreased. Disqualification rates were generally higher in initial examinations than in renewal examinations. The examination results for license renewal showed the ATPL disqualification rate to be the highest at 3.5 per 1000 pilots per year in their 50s, with cardiology cases being the most common reason for disqualification, followed by ophthalmology cases and psychiatry cases. Diagnostic categories for those disqualified after initial aviation medical examinations were similar, though ophthalmological causes were most common, followed by cases of psychiatry and neurology.CONCLUSION: Main causes of disqualification in airmen and air traffic controllers were identified as the presence of cardiovascular, ophthalmic, and psychiatric diseases. The results of this study provide evidence for improving health promotion activity plans to manage risk factors of such diseases for aviation workers.Kim JS, Han BS, Kwon YH, Lim J. A 5-yr analysis of aviation medical examinations in South Korea. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2022; 93(6):499-506.

The development of a scenario-based human-machine-environment-procedure (HMEP) classification scheme for the root cause analysis of helicopter accidents.

The current study analyzed the root causes of 22 helicopter accidents/incidents that took place between 1998 and 2019. Each root cause was coded using three commonly used classification models in aviation HFACS, ATSB, and IATA to identify recurring factors for better targeting of future prevention strategies. The frequency analysis revealed that not following procedure (22 observations), training inadequate or unavailable (17), inadequate regulatory oversight (17), inadequate procedure guidance (16), company management absent or deficient (10) and incorrect manuals/charts/checklists (9) were the most frequent contributing factors. Since none of the existing models could summarize the root causes of 22 occurrences effectively, a scenario-based human-machine-environment-procedure (HMEP) classification scheme was proposed to use organizational influences, people management, technical failure, procedure and document, and environment as the first-layer subcategories. The HMEP scheme was additionally applied to the analysis and coding of 4 helicopter accidents in the USA published by the NTSB. The HMEP scheme revealed that NTSB had identified a significantly greater number of root causes in the manufacturer design, manufacturing & documentation. Overall, HMEP can be used to guide the data collection during accident investigation and subsequently to aggregate aviation accidents to derive recurring factors and compare accident patterns in an efficient manner.

Predicting and mitigating failures on the flight deck: an aircraft engine bird strike scenario.

Engine damage as a consequence of foreign object debris (FOD) during flight is frequently caused by birds. One approach to minimising disruption caused by this damage is to provide flight crew with accurate information relating to the continuing operational status of the aircraft's engines. Before designing such avionic systems however, understanding of current procedures is needed. Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) and Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach (SHERPA) were used to identify potential failures that flight crew may make when managing an engine bird strike. Workshops with commercial pilots generated insights into current practice and a commercial pilot SME reviewed outputs for accuracy. Over 200 potential failures were identified, most commonly related to communication. Remedial measures, considering future avionic systems, are proposed to mitigate identified failures. This analysis provides a starting point for future design concepts for assisting flight crew in dealing with engine malfunction due to FOD strikes. Practitioner summary: Hierarchical Task Analysis was conducted to show all tasks involved in dealing with an in-flight aircraft engine bird strike. Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach analysis was performed and over 200 possible failures were identified when managing this event. Remedial measures are proposed to help mitigate possible failures.

An Orientation to Aviation Psychiatry: With 30 Case Examples and a 10-Year Follow-up.

ABSTRACT: This report orients general psychiatrists to assessment and care for "safety sensitive" aviation workers. Our case study of 30 sequential aviation patients consists of demographic, clinical, and aviation characteristics plus a 10-year follow-up. Relatively few pilots and other aviation workers self-identified their psychiatric condition. Aviation outcomes associated with psychiatric disorder included personnel injury and/or aircraft damage (three cases), imminent risk without injury or damage (nine cases), impaired aviation functioning without imminent risk (15 cases), and neither risk nor psychiatric disorder or impairment (three cases). Mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders comprised the most common diagnoses. Ten years later, 23 patients were employed (21 in aviation); seven were disabled or deceased. General psychiatrists will find aviation cases clinically familiar but requiring added evaluation for aviation safety and potential interaction with the Federal Aviation Agency and airline supervisors.

Cardiovascular Concerns from COVID-19 in Pilots.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease, now complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, remains a leading cause of death and risk for sudden incapacitation for pilots during flight. The capacity for aeromedically significant cardiovascular sequelae with potentially imperceptible clinical symptoms elicits concern both during and following resolution of acute COVID-19 in pilots.OBJECTIVE: We summarize the current state of knowledge regarding COVID-19 cardiovascular implications as applied to the aviation environment to better understand their significance toward flight safety and application toward a focused cardiovascular screening protocol following recovery from infection.METHODS: A narrative review of the cardiovascular implications of COVID-19 infection was performed using the PubMed literature search engine and existing organizational guidelines. In addition, to established medical aviation benchmarks, surrogate populations examined included high performance athletes (as a correlate for high G-forces), and scuba divers (as an environmental work analog). Conditions of primary concern included myocardial injury, proarrhythmic substrates, risk of sudden death, myopericarditis, pulse orthostatic lability in response to vigorous activity, cardiovagal dysfunction, and thromboembolic disease.LITERATURE REVIEW: Cardiovascular screening guideline recommendations post-infection recovery are suggested based on profile stratification: airperson flight class, tactical military, and aerobatic pilots. This provides an approach to inform aeromedical decision making.CONCLUSION: Aviation medical examiners should remain cognizant of the clinically apparent and occult manifestations of cardiovascular dysfunction associated with COVID-19 infection when applying return-to-work screening guidelines. This will ensure high flight safety standards are maintained and sudden incapacitation risk mitigated during and following the ongoing pandemic.Elkhatib W, Herrigel D, Harrison M, Flipse T, Speicher L. Cardiovascular concerns from COVID-19 in pilots. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2022; 93(12):855-865.

Research on Aviation Safety Prediction Based on Variable Selection and LSTM.

Accurate prediction of aviation safety levels is significant for the efficient early warning and prevention of incidents. However, the causal mechanism and temporal character of aviation accidents are complex and not fully understood, which increases the operation cost of accurate aviation safety prediction. This paper adopts an innovative statistical method involving a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and long short-term memory (LSTM). We compiled and calculated 138 monthly aviation insecure events collected from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and took minor accidents as the predictor. Firstly, this paper introduced the group variables and the weight matrix into LASSO to realize the adaptive variable selection. Furthermore, it took the selected variable into multistep stacked LSTM (MSSLSTM) to predict the monthly accidents in 2020. Finally, the proposed method was compared with multiple existing variable selection and prediction methods. The results demonstrate that the RMSE (root mean square error) of the MSSLSTM is reduced by 41.98%, compared with the original model; on the other hand, the key variable selected by the adaptive spare group lasso (ADSGL) can reduce the elapsed time by 42.67% (13 s). This shows that aviation safety prediction based on ADSGL and MSSLSTM can improve the prediction efficiency of the model while keeping excellent generalization ability and robustness.

When Outcomes are not Enough: An Examination of Abductive and Deductive Logical Approaches to Risk Analysis in Aviation.

While airlines generate massive amounts of operational data every year, the ability to use the collected material to improve safety has begun to plateau. With the increasing demand for air travel, the aviation industry is continually growing while simultaneously being required to ensure the level of safety within the system remains constant. The purpose of this article is to explore whether the traditional analysis methods that have historically made aviation ultra-safe have reached their theoretical limits or merely practical ones. This analysis argues that the underlying logic governing the traditional (and current) approaches to assess safety and risk within aviation (and other safety critical systems) is abductive and therefore focused on creating explanations rather than predictions. While the current "fly-fix-fly" approach has, and will continue to be, instrumental in improving what (clearly) fails, alternative methods are needed to determine if a specific operation is more or less risky than others. As the system grows, so too does the number of ways it can fail, creating the possibility that more novel accidents may occur. The article concludes by proposing an alternative approach that explicitly adds temporality to the concepts of safety and risk. With this addition, a deductive analysis approach can be adopted which, while low in explanatory power, can be used to create predictions that are not bound to analyzing only outcomes that have occurred in the past but instead focuses on determining the deviation magnitude between the operation under analysis and historically commensurate operations.

Development of a multicriteria decision-making model for selecting optimal aviation fatigue measurement methods.

Human fatigue has been proved to directly cause or contribute to a significant share of aviation accidents. Although fatigue measurement is a major input to any solution that targets reduction of fatigue adverse influences on aviation operations, there is a critical lack of evidence on what optimum sets of fatigue measurement strategies could be applied given the vast organizational and operational differences between various industry players. The current study utilizes the published aviation safety literature, the technology acceptance model and expert opinion to propose a new multicriteria decision model, the aviation fatigue measurement selection model, to decide on what fatigue measurement methods are most suitable for each aviation operator. The model addresses the validity, user acceptance, cost and other limitations of each currently acknowledged fatigue measurement method. The model was then applied through comprehensive scenario-based simulations and was found to be sensitive to changes in user preferences and valid.

Fuel Planning Errors in General Aviation from 2015 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Planning, whether preflight or in-flight, is a cause of accident that is presumably almost entirely preventable. Planning skills on the part of the pilot should assist in avoiding dangerous situations with regards to light conditions, weather, fuel shortage, and/or improper weight and balance. Fuel planning is noted as especially unnecessary, as fuel planning is not considered a complex skill but part of proper flight preparation and in-flight planning.METHODS: A total of 196 accident reports from 2015 until 2020 were extracted from the NTSB online database in which the probable cause included either preflight or in-flight planning as a cause attributed to the pilot. Of those accidents, the majority (N = 131, 67%) were attributed to fuel planning and were further analyzed.RESULTS: Fuel-planning related accidents were significantly less often fatal compared to all planning-related accidents and all fuel-related accidents. The majority of fuel planning accidents resulted in fuel exhaustion. Additionally, the cause attributed to the accidents was frequently the skill-based error of "fuel planning (pilot)" and the crew resource management issue of "fuel-fluid level". Specific information regarding the pilot's fuel plan was only available in 52 (40%) of the accident reports.CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of fuel-related planning accidents suggests that this aspect of pilotage is underestimated and requires more attention both in training and in standard operating procedures. In particular, more detailed information regarding the pilot's fuel plan is necessary in order to determine which step in the process most frequently results in an accident.Kalagher H. Fuel planning errors in general aviation from 2015 to 2020. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2021; 92(12):970-974.

Aviation Maxillofacial Shields and Blunt Impact Protection in U.S. Army Helicopter Mishaps.

BACKGROUND: Maxillofacial shields (MFSs) are an available piece of aviation protective equipment designed to integrate into aircrew helmets and protect the face from wind and flying debris. Aviators have anecdotally reported that MFSs have provided blunt impact protection during impact events (i.e., a crash); however, no such cases have been formally documented in the literature.CASE REPORTS: Two cases were identified where aircrew wearing MFSs were involved in mishaps resulting in maxillofacial blunt impacts. In the first case, an OH-58 pilot struck the cyclic with his head/face during a crash. In the second case, a CH-47 crew chief was struck in the face by a maintenance panel dislodged from the aircraft. In both cases the MFS was damaged, but neither service member experienced injuries as a result of impact to the face.DISCUSSION: The cases illustrate the effectiveness of the MFS against blunt impact during aviation mishaps. While MFS use is currently optional for aircrew, it is believed that increased MFS use would result in fewer or less severe facial injuries as well as decrease the associated time and monetary losses due to injury.Weisenbach CA, McGhee JS. Aviation maxillofacial shields and blunt impact protection in U.S. Army helicopter mishaps. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2021; 92(1):5053.